Julie Sells Dreams in Wisconsin's beautiful Northwood's

     Northwoods’ News

     Julie Winter-Paez– Broker   Coldwell Banker Mulleady REALTORS, May 9, 2012

_{This is our monthly look at volume of homes sold in Oneida and Vilas Counties.  Some good news here is that we sold 75 homes in April of 2012.  This compares with just 49 homes in 2011 and 63 homes in April of 2010.  So, 2012 year to date we have sold 239 homes.  In 2011, we sold 178 homes in this same period of time.  That is a difference of 61 homes or an increase of 25%.  In 2010, 183 homes were sold so we have a nice positive trend going.}

_{A bit less positive news is that this increase in unit sales has not meant that we have seen increases in prices.  We are still seeing very low offers and what is selling are homes that are priced well below market value.  We still have some bank owned homes and we have a lot of sellers who have been on the market for over 500 days and are accepting very low offers.  Once we get through this inventory and assuming that demand remains the same, we can expect market forces to start to drive prices upward.  Overall, the trend is positive and that is a good thing.}

_{One thing that I will point out is that some markets are moving better than others.  The $300K and under market is moving better than the $300K to $750K market.  The mid-market remains tough as so many of these buyers were utilizing home equity loans and lines of credit on their primary residences to purchase second homes.  The equity on their primary residences is largely gone and so is their ability to buy a second home.}

_{Markets like Phoenix are now very active because investors now make up 45% of the buyers.  It really is an opportune time to be buying real estate.}  

Market Statistic as of March 28, 2012 in the Northern WI counties of Vilas and Oneida!

We are now almost finished with the first quarter of the 2012 year and with the jumpstart into spring we have had it DOES feel like we have had a jump start into an early selling season.  I am always hesitant to be TOO optimistic but I can hardly help myself this year.   Heck, I seldom can help myself, but there are signs I am seeing of good activity so far in 2012.  Let me go over with you what I am seeing.

For the Northwood’s counties of Vilas and Oneida, I am seeing movement in my market segment in both off and on water homes as well as vacant parcels!  Finally, some optimism….First, the areas I analyzed were the Townships of Land O Lakes, Conover, Eagle River, Lincoln, Washington, Cloverland, SugarCamp, Three Lakes and St Germain. If you have interest in any other area please let me know and I can study that area for you as well…

So, let me start with vacant dirtJ

14 parcels sold in my immediate marketing area in 2011: of those 3 were on water, 11 were off water, the average sale price was $51,300 and the average days on market ( DOM ) was 514.

IN 2012 there have been 15 units sold so far this year: 6 were on water, 9 were off water; the average sales price was $67,700 and the average DOM was 337. Currently there are 10 with accepted offers about 5 of which have some waterfront.

So for land total sales are up slightly, average price is up, days on market is down AND amount of higher end parcels ( waterfront ) is UP!

Now Off water home sales: 

In 2011 there were 19 units closed by March 28^th, the average price was $106,666. And the average DOM was 227. Of those 19 closed sales; 7 appear to have been bank owned and 12 were not.  The highest off water sale was 250k.

Now Off water home sales for 2012.  So far there have been 16 units closed by March 28^th, the average price was $125,781. And the average DOM was 289. Of those 16 closed sales; 5 appear to have been bank owned and 11 were not.  The highest off water sale was 200k.  I also want to note that there are currently 13 with accepted offers TODAY and of those 13 only 3 appear to be bank owned.

So off water home total sales are slightly down BUT non- bank owned sales are up; average sales prices are UP, and there is a high number of transactions due to close with a limited number of those being bank owned. Again, this is a good sign to me as well.

Lastly, the on water home market:

In 2011 there were 12 units closed by March 28^th, the average price was $416,627. And the average DOM was 363. Of those 12 closed sales; 2 appear to have been bank owned and 10 were not.  The prices range from 90k to 2,000,000.00

Now On water home sales for 2012.  So far there have been 14 units closed by March 28^th, the average price was $445,142. And the average DOM was 274. Of those 14 closed sales; 4 appear to have been bank owned and 10 were not.  The prices range to 3,325,000.  I also want to note that there are currently 16 with accepted offers TODAY and of those 16 only 4 appear to be bank owned.

So ON water home total sales are UP; average sales prices are UP, and DOM is down. There is an increase in bank owned sales in this market but they are going fast which I believe is why we see a decrease in DOM. There is also a high number of transactions due to close which I also believe is a good sign of this year’s market. Plus a positive side effect of the current weather we are experiencing. 

Buyers are looking and buying but they are price conscious and striking when they see a deal.  Let’s get our self in a good position.

j

Year End Statistics for the Northern WI counties of Oneida and Vilas!

Vilas County Data

               Oneida County  *items no data available in MLS

VILAS COUNTY:  The TOP table looks at Sell/List Price and the Sell/FMV in the Townships of Vilas County for both on-water and off water homes.  There were 395 homes and condo’s sold in Vilas County in 2011 ( this is up from 363 units in 2010).  When one looks at the table, it becomes apparent that there are some tremendous bargains and buyers are taking full advantage of their leverage. Only two township had an average sale price ABOVE FMV (Cloverland On Water and Phelps Off Water ) and in both of these cases there were significant improvements to the land that had not yet caught up with the assessor.. I would also note that the overall average Sell to FMV is roughly 82% for On Water and 82.5 % for Off Water. I would also point out the while Washington is really low with Sell  to FMV when I take out the one large sale on Catfish Lake that sold for roughly 55% of Tax based value that percentage jumps from about 63% to 78%. . Also of note Vilas counties average sale price was down about 3% from 2010’s average sales price.

ONEIDA COUNTY: The BOTTOM table looks at the Sell/List Price and the Sell/Fair Market Value in the townships of Oneida County for both on-water and off water homes.  There were 453 homes and condos sold in Oneida County in 2011 (this was down about 30 units from 2010) .  The table is quite similar to the Vilas County table.  It is apparent that there were some tremendous bargains out there. There are four cases where the property sold for above FMV (Newbold, Pelican, Rhinelander and Three Lakes on-water).  The lowest point on the table is Woodboro off water where properties sold at only 43% of their assessed value.  In fairness, Woodboro only had 5 homes sell off water and it appears that three of them were bank-owned sales.    I would also note that the overall average Sell to FMV is roughly 78% for On Water and 76% for Off Water. Also, I’d like to note that Oneida Counties average sales price was up about 3% over 2010.

There was a time not long ago when more than 75% of homes would sell above the assessors’ fair market value.  That trend has clearly reversed and the vast majority of homes in the county sell for 80% of their fair market value. 

What does this mean? In Wisconsin, property taxes are paid in arrears.  Property taxes are based upon the property value as of January 1. Why the huge variations from township to township?  If the town recently revalued, it should be a higher (more accurate) value.  If there were several bank owned sales in an individual segment, that will bring a town down.  Some towns had many sales and some did not.  Also, each township contracts with an independent assessor.  Assessments (revaluations) are not done annually.    For a seller, it is not good news.  If one looks at the assessed value, homes are selling for around 80% of this value.  Can I hear a collective “ouch”!?   For the buyer, it is great news as the there has never been a better time to be a buyer.  Interest rates remain at 4% and below and the selection is excellent!  Years from now, many will regret the opportunity that today’s market presents.

Year End Statistics for the Northern WI counties of Oneida and Vilas!

Bank Owned Statistics for Northern WI Year End 2011

Just going over some year end numbers and - again - I get the most questions on info regarding bank owned and distressed sale properties. There was a news broadcast last week regarding this topic and I wanted to share some info I found with you - esp since I think it tells a very different story - bank owned sales do not appear to be on the rise from what I see in northern WI.

Looking back to 2009 when this market really started out we say roughly 82 bank owned sales in the entire MLS by the two biggest companies that house the listings; in 2010 there were approximately 139 and in 2011 roughly 120. Again, these numbers are pulled by looking at the number of homes sold by the top 2 leading bank owned sales offices in our MLS. It is NOT exact but I feel a "fair' estimate of the overall market.

Now regarding average price; in 2009 the average sale price was 103,193 : in 2010 the average sale price was 100,375 and in 2011 the average sale price was 82,908. The list to sell ratios are also declining, In 2009 the average list to sell ratio was 86%, in 2010 it was 76% and in 2011 it dropped to 73%. This is an average of all sales and I would expect the waterfront homes to be on the high end while the off water and vacant land sales will be on the lower end of those ratios. If I have time I may extract that info in the future but the KEY is to negotiate on your own and not in competition with another buyer.

I love this challenge and what it means not only in my life BUT my business and my world overall!

When I looked up the definition of trust the one I found that felt the most accurate and on target for me was the following:

Confident expectation of something: hope.

This is a solid reflection on my faith, my family and my business. I have hope.  In the current world we live in I think this is the one thing many people have lost sight of and the one thing that many people do not have. It is also the one thing that I try to give every buyer and every seller in my life because if I can get them to trust me I can give them hope.

As REALTORS we see everyday the lack of hope in so many peoples eyes.. 

• That Seller you are soliciting after having been on the market since 2005 who fears they will NEVER get the home sold so they can move on with their lives.  They want a signs of hope that yes they will sell and no they will not have to feel run over again by yet another agent.
• That Buyer that is sooo afraid they will miss the opportunity to cash in on this market, while fearing they will over pay. They want hope that they will buy in a savvy fashion and they will not see another 20% drop after their purchase.

And then for me the hope that I will be able to make my customer/clients feel good about their decisions in this market so they can sleep with ease at night and trust that they are doing the right thing. I still feel that home ownership is the bedrock of our society and when people start to feel that hope again and that it is an attainable goal for them they will begin to trust our economy. 

Love this topic and love this contest!

This post is a submission to the ActiveRain / Adobe EchoSign Trust Contest. I could possibly win a prize. You can find out about the contest by clicking here

Amazing Waterfront Parcel on Dam Lake of the Sggar Camp Chain of Lakes in Northern WI

Opportunity SELDOM knocks like this! 22.45 acres of high - dry privacy on the 5 lake Sugar Camp WI chain of Lakes and OVER 1040 feet of gorgeous sandy frontage on the main body of Dam Lake.  

This is a privacy dream in a location perfect for anyone!  Priced below Fair market Value AND BELOW Recent Appraised Value this is a MUST see parcel for the "real" buyer.

This is a HUGE OPPORTUNITY to have it all and then subdivide if you want! This uniquely private parcel is one of a kind in this market AND on this Chain! Located on Dam Lake of the 5 lake Sugar Camp Chain the land is all high, dry and wooded so this parcel is special!. You can build anywhere and the lake views will be stunning from any spot here. Located in Sugar Camp between Rhinelander and Eagle River the setting could not be better and the Sugar Camp Chain is known for privacy and EXCELLENT FISHING! Currently there is an old three season cottage with no septic on site and a small garage that can hold the boat while you decide where to build your dream home!

For MORE information on this unique Buy visit my website at www.EagleRiverHomeFinder.com for additional pictures

Again let's recap this unique piece:

• Over 22 acres of high, dry, wooded  privacy
• OVER 1040 feet of gorgeous frontage
• Off of Hwy D just down from the camp and betweem Eagle River and Rhinelander
• Seller believes it can be subdivided
• Priced below BOTH Fair Market Value and Appraised value

December 2011 results for the Northern WI counties of Vilas and Oneida!

After a better than expected October and November, December was slightly disappointing.  Home sales dropped to 78 units in Vilas and Oneida Counties for the last month of the 2011 year.  That compares with 92 units in December of 2010.  However, we only sold 67 units in December of 2009.  I can offer little in the way of an explanation for the lackluster results as December sales represent the lowest volume since May’s volume of 74 units.  My thoughts are that it could be a reflection of the current economic environment BUT - again - if you look at the last quarter OVERALL we ended up in numbers and this, to me, is a far better indicator and shows a better reflection of the year overall. Sales units in my market segment are up!!

There is one very interesting point to be made.  I cannot recall a point where we had more homes being listed than sold.  In December, only 85 homes were listed.  We almost had more homes sell than were listed!  The chart above shows this and you can see where those lines almost overlap in December.... Sellers obviously do not have a great deal of confidence in the market.  I have first-hand experience with this as I have had to tell many sellers that I cannot sell their homes for what they believe to be a fair value.  The market appears to be working as the reduced number of sellers entering the market will reduce supply and in theory, will put upward pressure on prices.  Less Supply EQUALS greater demand!!!  I will watch this trend as we head into the New Year.  For more information or to watch my video blog check out my website www.EagleRiverHomeFinder.com.

We have good snow cover and plenty of ice.  The trails are marked and in good shape.  We hope that you have the opportunity to come up and see our winter wonderland!  Best wishes for the New Year!

Copyright©by Julie Paez, All Rights Reserved,  "Market statistics for December of 2011 in Vilas and Oneida Counties." 

Bank Owned/Short Sales and how they affect the Vilas and Oneida WI Real Estate Markets as of 11-16-2011

The BIGGEST question I am asked by Buyer’s is: “How can you help me find that great bank owned purchase?” The biggest question I am asked by Seller’s is: “How are bank owned sales affecting my market niche?”

There is always a lot of interest about foreclosures and short sales especially when it comes to our water front market.  The fact of the matter is that there simply are not that many lake homes that get foreclosed.  The chart above shows non-bank owned vs. bank owned sales for the Northwoods MLS.  The total numbers are this:  Thus far, there have been 975 unit sales in Vilas and Oneida Counties.  Of those, 117 were foreclosures or short sales (12% of the market).  Of those 117, only 25 were on water (2.5%).  Further breaking that number down, only 5 sold for above $250K.  I call this the premium lake home market and these 5 units represent 0.5% of the market.

When I look at the total year of 2010, I saw 1144 total unit sales with 123 bank and short sales (10.7%).  There were 25 units sold in 2010 that were on water (2.1%) and 11 homes sold for above $250K (0.9%).

What does this all mean?  It looks as if the number of foreclosures is increasing as a percentage of sales.  The reality is that the raw number of sales appears to be more of the problem (975 vs. 1144).  We still have 45 days left in CY2011 so we may make up the 169 unit shortfall in unit sales.  The number of foreclosures seems to be rather steady.  We certainly are not seeing a spike up or down in the number of foreclosures and short sales.

If you are looking for a “steal” on water, they do exist.  They simply are not ALWAYS bank owned properties.  There are many sellers out there that are highly motivated and those are the homes that are moving at this time.  This is great news for buyers.  It is not the best of news for sellers.  So, again get your ducks in a row and be prepared to pull the trigger so to speak when something becomes available or is REDUCED into your price range because when they do become available they are often highly sought after:)

Bank Owned/Short Sales and how they affect the Vilas and Oneida WI Real Estate Markets as of 11-16-2011.

Julie Paez - REALTOR -  Coldwell Banker Mulleady REALTORS, October 7, 2011 Market Statistic for Vilas and Oneida Counties in Northern Wisconsin

In a repeat performance to last month’s sales figures; it isn’t terrific but it is a nice trend.  The red line represents the number of homes sold by month in Vilas and Oneida Counties.  In September, there were 90 homes sold in Oneida and Vilas Counties.  In 2010, 93 homes sold and in September of 2009, 78 homes sold.  In August, there were 96 homes sold.  That compares with 94 homes sold in 2010 and 84 homes sold in 2009.  These numbers are not super but the red line is becoming a bit more consistent and I believe we are on track to have a better October than last year.

Another trend we are seeing is the reduced number of listings.  In 2007 and 2008, there really was a lot of inventory.  We sold a lot of homes but the rate at which we sell homes (called the saturation rate) was quite poor.  We still are far from healthy but we appear to be heading in the right direction and Seller’s that really have no motivation to sell are slowly not returning their homes to the market.

What can one do as a Seller in a market so heavily favoring the Buyer? 

• The most obvious is to reduce the asking price.  I know how painful that can be and it is not always the best solution.  I am always telling you that “it’s a price war and a beauty contest and you have to win both”. 
• If you are already priced competitively (I would suggest actually visiting competitive listings) or allowing me to set up a manual search for you so you can actively see your competition and what they are doing with pricing daily. You will get listings like a Buyer does and this really keeps you up to date with the current market. 
• Next, you can consider how you look to the Buyer… or staging.  Staging is something that is commonly done in more urban markets.  It is not very common here at this time but there are people who can help.  Stagers can make suggestions from paint and decorating tips all the way to bringing in pieces of furniture to present your home in the best possible light.  I have taken several staging classes and am always ready to provide additional homework for my SellersJ

Mother Nature has blessed us again with spectacular color.  The fall season never disappoints here in the Northwood’s!  Come up and enjoy th colors in the beautiful northern Wisconsin counties of Vilas and Oneida!